Prediction Score - BTS - Evaluation of Prediction Ability

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In this article you will get comprehensive information about the Prediction-Score (PS). This score is used to evaluate the predictive ability of respondents by measuring how well they can predict the distribution of other people's answers to a particular question.

Predictive accuracy as quality criteria

The Prediction Score assesses the ability of interviews/respondents to make predictions. In the process, respondents are asked to make an assessment of the distribution of other people's answers with the help of a projective control question set.
A high Prediction-Score indicates that the prediction of an interview is close to the actual answer distribution or empirical frequency. Interviews receive a PS of 100 for a »perfect« prediction. The prediction score thus measures how careful and conscientious the respondents' answers are.
In order to use the Prediction-Score, projective question sets must be added to the questionnaire.

Premise behind the Prediction-Score

The underlying assumption of the Prediction-Score is that individuals who are more careful about the answers they give are better able to predict the behavior of others.

Scientific background

Together with the Information-Score the Prediction-Score is part of the so-called Bayesian Truth Serum (BTS)This concept originates from more than 15 years of research at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), under the direction of Prof. Drazen Prelec. The results have also been published in various scientific publications.

Prelec D. A Bayesian Truth Serum for Subjective Data, Science, 2004

Radas S, Prelec D. Whose data can we trust: How meta-predictions can be used to uncover credible respondents in survey data, PLOSOne, 2019

To apply the BTS, the Prediction-Score must be combined with the Information score within the weighting function .

Applications and fields of use

The Prediction-Score can be used independently of the survey method. The only prerequisite is the integration of projective question sets.

If you have any further questions about the Prediction Score, please contact us at business@redem.io

Prediction Score - BTS - Evaluation of Prediction Ability

Predictive accuracy as quality criteria

Premise behind the Prediction-Score

Scientific background

Applications and fields of use

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